Serial champions Manchester City are in crisis going into this weekend’s clash against Liverpool, but will we get the result most people are expecting? We attempt to answer that, plus find some other picks we like in this weekend’s preview. Here is the boosted treble for this weekend!
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted Treble of the week
West Ham – Arsenal
According to press reports, Julen Lopetegui had two games to save his job – starting with Newcastle away on Monday. Asking the struggling West Ham boss to produce results away to Newcastle and at home to Arsenal to keep his job seems a little harsh, but Lopetegui duly pulled off a surprise win at St James’ Park on Monday night. I would argue that they were a little fortunate in that game, with Newcastle creating more chances and looking the stronger team. West Ham are 14th in the table and 16th on expected goals, which is not what they will have been expecting after a fairly lavish summer spending spree.
Arsenal are back! At least it looks like they are. With their creator-in-chief restored to the midfield they are looking far more fluid in possession, and they comfortably overcame Nottingham Forest last weekend before thumping a dangerous Sporting team in the CL this midweek. The potential absence of Gabriel from defence is a minor concern, with Ben White already missing from the backline. But really, if Arsenal can produce anything like the performances we’ve seen from them in their last two games then West Ham should have a hard time here.
It’s been a bit of a stop-start season for Arsenal, with red cards and key players being absent contributing to more dropped points than expected. But in their last two games they have looked back to their old selves, and I feel pretty good about backing them against an opponent that’s 16th in the table on xG. I think Arsenal will win this, so we’re putting a straight Arsenal win on our weekly treble.
Chelsea – Aston Villa
Next up we are heading across town and to Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea take on Aston Villa. And Villa are really not having a great time at the moment. A 0-0 draw against Juventus in midweek is no disaster, but it does mean that they have now gone seven games without a win in all competitions. After an impressive start to the season, this run has seen them drop into 8th in the table. Though with just four points separating Newcastle in 10th and Chelsea in 3rd, that league position maybe it’s something we should read too much into.
What I am inclined to read more into is the xG table, which currently has Aston Villa 7th, just ahead of Fulham but just behind Bournemouth.
Their defence is holding up pretty well, Villa conceding the 5th lowest xG number in the league so far this season. But they are 7th on xG created, just ahead of Manchester United and Fulham but behind Bournemouth and Brentford. This is not terrible, by any means, but for a team that is hoping to retain their CL spot this season it’s not very good either.
Chelsea are a bit of a curious case. They were the 4th best team in the league on xG last season, which prompted them to hire a new manager and spent a lot of money on even more players. 12 games into the new season they are… the 4th best team in the league on xG. But the team seems to be in a pretty good place at the moment. They’ve dropped points in three out of their last five league games, but two of those were against Liverpool and Arsenal. Nicolas Jackson emerging as a somewhat reliable goalscorer has been very helpful for the team, and a fit Romeo Lavia has been a useful addition to their midfield.
They’ve been mostly solid at home: After losing to Manchester City at home on the opening day of the season, Chelsea have had six wins and three draws in all competitions at Stamford Bridge.
Aston Villa are going through a bit of a dry spell, whereas Chelsea have been largely solid and appear to be gradually improving under Enzo Maresca’s management. I’m happy to back Chelsea to get another home win here, so we’re taking “Chelsea to win” for our weekly boosted treble.
Liverpool – Manchester City
Manchester City, where do you start? For the first 75 minutes of their CL game against Feyenoord this midweek it looked like things were somewhat back to normal, before a string of weird errors allowed the Dutch side to come back and claim a 3-3 draw. All too aware of their recent, unprecedented losing streak, the City players looked brittle. Not only does Pep Guardiola have to find a way to make this team work without a couple of key absentees, he also has to find a way to lift their confidence. What they needed was another nice, comfortable, easily winnable home game to end the run of bad results and change the narrative around the team. What they really don’t need is an away trip to Anfield.
Liverpool have been comfortably the best team in England so far this season, possibly the best in Europe. Arne Slot has wisely opted for evolution rather than revolution, and the players appear to be responding well to his methods. And it’s worth remembering that Liverpool were actually really good for most of last season. They ended the season with the best home record in the league (15 wins, three draws and just one defeat), and they produced the highest xG number in the league by a solid margin. Before they ran out of steam in the latter stages of the season, they looked very much like a team that had the potential to win the title. Perhaps, with a few little tweaks from Arne Slot, that potential is about to be realised. Betsson currently have Liverpool at 1.85 in the outright market, way ahead of Arsenal (4.25) and Manchester City (4.50).
One of the changes Slot has made is that Liverpool play more through the middle of the pitch, with the number of crosses into the box so far this season being lower than the last. Watching Liverpool comfortably dominate the midfield in their CL game against Real Madrid this week, it was hard not to think of how badly City’s midfield went AWOL against Spurs in their last league game.
City simply weren’t able to contain Tottenham’s midfield, and with Liverpool being even stronger than Spurs in that department that has to be a huge concern for City going into this game. Throughout his career Guardiola has built teams that look to control the game, and their weakness – to the extent that they had any – was dealing with more chaotic game states. Currently, City appear to lack the energy and sharpness to dominate opponents they way they’re used to, and when games become more open they look very uncomfortable.
Liverpool have so far this season looked like a team that can both patiently dominate possession, but also turn up the tempo and play more direct passes when the spaces are there. It’s hard to imagine the team that got turned over by Tottenham and that couldn’t hold on to a 3-0 lead against Feyenoord going to Anfield and controlling the game for 90 minutes, so I think we have to expect a game where City are going to have to do a fair bit of defending off the ball. Even at their best, that isn’t something this team is super comfortable with.
And they are very far from their best.
It’s an obvious thing to say, and perhaps it is something of a trap because of how obvious it is, but I think City will have a very bad time here. In fact, I am surprised the price on a Liverpool win here is as high as 2.12. City’s historical qualities are baked into that price, and for all of their problems there is obviously still a lot of talent in this group of players. But with Rodri and Kovacic absent, as well as another possible stand-in in John Stones, and their best defender Ruben Dias, I just don’t see how Manchester City are supposed to stop Liverpool. I’m going to round off this week’s boosted treble with a straight Liverpool win in this game, and we are going to have a single pick from this encounter as well.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 5.23, but Betsson have increased the odds to 6.00! Good luck!
Selected singles
Brentford – Leicester City
First off with our selected singles we are going to go looking for goals, and we are going to start with Brentford versus Leicester. And the thinking here is very simple: “Both teams to score” have landed in 83% of Brentford’s games this season, and 83% of Leicester City’s. We got burned on backing both teams to score in a Brentford game, but that game was obviously affected by a red card in the first half – and it is fairly unusual to have a game with 36 shots in it end 0-0.
That’s football, and it isn’t going to discourage me from looking at goals here. That game last weekend was the only clean sheet Brentford have kept all season, and all six of their home games have ended with both teams scoring.
Leicester City are a curious bunch. They have the third worst xG in the league, so sacking their manager is perhaps not a totally rogue move. But doing so just after the international break, after losing to Chelsea, seems deeply strange. Appointing Ruud van Nistlerooy as his replacement seems like a big risk as well, with the Dutchman having only completed one full season in management. Would he have been on their list if he hadn’t been the caretaker manager of Manchester United for four games?
Either way, Leicester’s 3-0 defeat to Manchester United – then led by Van Nistlerooy – was the first away game in the league this season in which they failed to score. They found the net away to Fulham, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Southampton and Ipswich. Leicester have actually scored the same number of goals this season as 7th placed Nottingham Forest – and just one less than Bournemouth. The problem has been down the other end, where only Southampton and Wolves have conceded more than them.
I don’t think last weekend’s 0-0 against Everton was a sign that Brentford have dramatically changed, I think that was them getting a man sent off and having to hang on against a pretty poor attack.
Normal service should be resumed here and normally this season Brentford have been a pretty goal-tastic team. Only Wolves have averaged more goals, both for and against, in their games so far this season than Brentford. So I’m picking a classic of this blog here: “Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals” at price of 1.91.
Wolves – Bournemouth
Speaking of Wolves and goals, we are going to do the same thing in Wolves’ game against Bournemouth. Things have finally started to turn around for Gary O’Neill and Wolves after their terrible start to the season, but then we were all expecting that to happen. They had a truly terrible fixture list to start the season, and they rarely disgraced themselves. They were always likely to start picking up points when the fixture list turned. After having gone on a six game losing streak from September onwards, Wolves now have two draws and two wins in their last four.
Whether they’ve been winning or losing, Wolves games have meant goals.
“Both teams to score” has landed in 10 out of 12 games in the league for Wolves this season, and their games have averaged a whopping 4 goals overall. Will the game against Bournemouth be dramatically different? I don’t think so. Bournemouth are themselves a fairly attacking team that doesn’t always defend well. Bournemouth have kept just one clean sheet all season, and their attack has been looking pretty good in recent weeks. I’m convinced that an improving Wolves team will score here, but I would also back Bournemouth to find the net. So again, we go for “both teams to score + over 2.5”, priced by Betsson at 1.87.
Liverpool – Manchester City
Lastly, we’re going to have a single pick in this game as well as having it on our weekly treble. It seems almost too obvious, but having watched City’s midfield struggle to contain their opponents in recent weeks and having seen Liverpool dominate against Real Madrid, I have to go for Liverpool here. Guardiola is the most successful manager of his generation for a reason, there is every possibility that he will find a magic solution to the team’s problems and help rescue Manchester City’s season, but I just don’t think it will happen here. We have a straight Liverpool win on our weekly treble, and I honestly think it’s worth taking a punt on backing Liverpool with a -1 handicap here. Manchester City have conceded two goals or more in six straight games, and Liverpool have the best defensive record in the league so far. The potential injury absence of Ibrahima Konate is a slight concern, but with City having the problems they’re having I think this is a long shot worth taking. Betsson are offering a price of 3.72 on Liverpool to win with a -1 handicap, and I just think that number is too big under the circumstances. I think City’s miserable run will continue this Sunday, and I’m backing Liverpool accordingly.
Good luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.
Last Updated: 29.11.24
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